Wpływ zmiennych makroekonomicznych na indeksy giełdowe

W pracy dokonano empirycznej weryfikacji wpływu wybranych wielkości makroekonomicznych na indeks giełdowy. Wybrane zmienne makroekonomiczne to: krótkoterminowa stopa procentowa (oprocentowanie jednomiesięcznego depozytu), długoterminowa stopa procentowa (oprocentowanie 10 letnich obligacji rządowych), kurs walutowy, inflacja (CPI), stopa bezrobocia, indeks produkcji przemysłowej, ceny ropy naftowej. Estymacji dokonano wykorzystując kilka technik ekonometrycznych. W celu zobrazowania zależności krótkookresowych wykorzystano funkcje reakcji na impuls bazując na standardowym modelu VAR. Długoterminowe zależności estymowano przy wykorzystaniu modelu korekty błędem (VECM). W celu dokonania bardziej dogłębnej analizy badanych zależności wykorzystano niespotykaną dla tej klasy badań regresję na danych panelowych. Badanie przeprowadzono dla siedmiu wyselekcjonowanych rynków kapitałowych, będących na różnym stopniu rozwoju: Stany Zjednoczone, Wielka Brytania, Japonia, Niemcy, Polska, Czechy i Węgry. W badaniu wykorzystano dane miesięczne obejmujące okres styczeń 1999 – czerwiec 2012. W ten sposób uzyskano ciekawe spektrum wyników dla odmiennych rynków wykorzystując różne metody ekonometryczne. Należy tu chociażby przytoczyć odmienne znaki współczynników otrzymanych dla inflacji, czy kursu walutowego w zależności od zestawu rynków dla których dokonano estymacji. This dissertation presents an empirical verification of the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on the stock market index. Selected macroeconomic variables are: short term interest (one-month deposit), long term interest (10 year government bonds), exchange rate, inflation (CPI), unemployment rate, industrial production index, oil price. Estimations were made using several econometric techniques. The short term impacts were verified by using VAR models and mapped by Inter Response Function (IRF). The long-run coefficient were estimated by using vector error correction model (VECM). Moreover for exploring these interactions more deeply was applied an innovative approach by using data regression panel. The study was conducted for the seven selected capital markets, which are at different stages of development: United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. The study used monthly data covering the period January 1999 - June 2012. This gave an interesting range of results for different markets using different econometric methods. Due to the fact this gave an interesting range of results i.a. different signs of coefficients obtained for inflation, the exchange rate, depending on the range of markets of which estimates were made

Pain sensitivity, negative affect, and alcohol use disorder status: A moderated mediation study of emotion dysregulation

Previous work suggests that the association between pain and emotional processes among individuals with alcohol use disorder (AUD) may differ from healthy controls. This study inves-tigates whether pain sensitivity mediates the association between negative affect and emotional dysregulation and whether this association differs across AUD status using moderated mediation. The sample included 165 individuals diagnosed with AUD and 110 healthy controls. Of interest was pain sensitivity, as assessed with the Pain Sensitivity Questionnaire, negative affect, as assessed with the Beck Depression Inventory, and emotional dysregulation, as assessed with the Difficulties in Emotional regulation Scale. Age, biological sex, and current pain severity were included as covariates. The results support a moderated partial mediation model that explained 44% of the variance in emotional dysregulation. The findings indicate that negative affect is related to higher pain sensitivity across groups. Moreover, pain sensitivity partially mediated the association between negative affect and emotional dysregulation, but in opposite directions depending on AUD status. Among healthy controls, greater pain sensitivity was related to better emotional regulation, while greater pain sensitivity led to greater emotional dysregulation among individuals with AUD. The potential parallels in the underlying neurobiological mechanisms of emotionality, pain, and AUD suggest that interventions targeting pain may improve adaptive affect regulation skills, which in turn could reduce negative affect and its effect on pain sensitivity among individuals with AUD

Interoception, alexithymia, and anxiety among individuals with alcohol use disorder

BackgroundInteroception (i.e., the ability to recognize bodily signals), alexithymia (i.e., the inability to recognize emotional states) and negative affect (i.e., unpleasant feelings such as anxiety) have been associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Previous research suggests that interoception may underlie alexithymia, which in turn may be associated with negative affectivity. However, this remains to be empirically tested. This study investigates whether alexithymia mediates the association between interoception and anxiety and whether this association differs across individuals with AUD and a healthy control (HC) comparison group.MethodsThe AUD group consisted of 99 participants enrolled in an 8-week abstinence-based inpatient treatment program. The HC group included 103 healthy individuals. The heartbeat counting task (HCT) was used to assess interoception (cardiac interoceptive accuracy). The Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20) was used to assess alexithymia. The Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI) was used to assess anxiety.ResultsThe moderated mediation model with interoception as the predictor, alexithymia as the mediator, and negative affect (i.e., state anxiety) as the dependent variable was tested. The analysis showed that the conditional indirect effect of interoception on anxiety via alexithymia was significant for individuals with AUD [ab = −0.300, bootstrap 95% CI = (−0.618, −0.088)], as well as for HCs [ab = −0.088, bootstrap 95% CI = (−0.195, −0.014)]; however, the conditional indirect effect significantly differed across HCs and individuals with AUD. Namely, the mediated effect was greater among individuals with AUD compared to the HC group.ConclusionThe results suggests that interoceptive impairment contributes to greater negative affect (i.e., state anxiety) via alexithymia especially for individuals with AUD. Improving emotion recognition via therapeutic methods focused on strengthening interoceptive abilities could improve outcomes for individuals receiving treatment for AUD

THE ACTS OF THE WILL ACCORDING TO ST. THOMAS AQUINAS

The article attempts to clarify an important aspect of St. Thomas Aquinas’s theory of human action, namely to show these acts of man which are immediately caused by the will. According to some contemporary philosophers, the acts of the will are limited to those of trying or of intending. Do they exhaust the whole possibility of the will to act? The author seeks to answer this question basing his considerations on the analysis of the Summa Theologiae by St. Thomas Aquinas

In the determined world. On the stoic power that govern the univers

Czy życie ludzi jest zdeterminowane? Na to pytanie próbuję dać odpowiedź poprzez analizę filozofii stoickiej. Stoicy wierzyli, że cały świat jest tą samą materialną substancją, w tym również Bóg. Kosmos jest wynikiem działania Boga będącego aktywną zasadą, rozumianą jako Opatrzność czy Przeznaczenie. Bóg-Logos troszczy się o cały świat i kieruje nim od wewnątrz. Istnieją jednak różnice pomiędzy rozumieniem przeznaczenia będącego pewnym łańcuchem przyczyn następujących po sobie, a opatrznością, która jest boską mądrością czuwającą nad światem. Wszelkie pozostałe różnice ukazują filozofię stoików jako przemyślany i spójny system logiczno-wierzeniowy.Is human life is determinated? On this question I try to answer through the analysis of the Stoic philosophy. The Stoics believed that whole world, including God, is material substance, and every thing has a particle of God. The cosmos is the result of the action of God and exists from one fire to the next. God is the active principle which is understood as Providence (pro,noia) and Fate (ei`marme,nh), and He takes care of the world and directs from the inside. However, there is a difference between Providence and Fate. Divine providence is a power – God extends the providence to the whole world, but fate is a chain of causes

Panel Verification of the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Indices

Celem artykułu jest empiryczna weryfikacja wpływu krajowych zmiennych makroekonomicznych na indeksy giełdowe. Do zbadania tych zależności wykorzystano trzy różne estymatory: DFE, MG i PMG. W badaniu wykorzystano dane dotyczące dwudziestu krajów należących do OECD. Natomiast wśród wykorzystanych zmiennych makroekonomicznych były: produkcja przemysłowa, inflacja, bezrobocie, kurs walutowy, krótkoi długoterminowa stopa procentowa. W wyniku estymacji otrzymano interesujące rezultaty w zakresie poszczególnych zmiennych makroekonomicznych czy rodzaju zależności (krótko- lub długookresowa).The aim of this article is an empirical verification of the impact of national macroeconomic variables on stock market indices. To investigate these relationships, three estimators: DFE, MG and PMG were used. The study used data from twenty OECD countries. The macroeconomic variables used included: industrial production, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate, short- and long-term interest rates. The estimation brought interesting results for the different macroeconomic variables, depending on the type of short-run or long-run relationships

Alcohol use and interoception - A narrative review.

Interoception, defined as the ability to perceive and interpret body signals, may play an important role in alcohol use disorder (AUD). Earlier studies suggested an association between interoception impairment and known risk factors for AUD (e.g., alexithymia, emotion dysregulation, impulsivity, pain). Neurobiological studies show that the neurotoxicity of alcohol affects various elements of the interoceptive system (especially the insula) at structural and functional levels, with differential short/long term impacts. Conversely, primary interoceptive impairments may promote alcohol consumption and foster the evolution towards addiction. Despite convincing evidence demonstrating that interoception impairment may be an important contributor to the development and course of AUD, only a few studies directly evaluated interoceptive abilities in AUD. The research shows that interoceptive accuracy, the objective component of interoception, is lower in AUD individuals, and is correlated with craving and emotion dysregulation. Interoceptive sensibility is in turn higher in AUD individuals compared to healthy controls. Moreover, there is evidence that therapy focused on improving the ability to sense signals from the body in addiction treatment is effective. However, important methodological limitations in interoceptive measures persist, and it is therefore necessary to further investigate the associations between interoception and AUD

Numerical analysis of laser-welded flange pipe joints in lap and fillet configurations

This article presents a numerical analysis of laser-welded flange pipe joints. The presented results concern the welding of low carbon S235JR and stainless 316L steels using a CO2 laser in lap and fillet joint configurations. The estimation of welding parameters was achieved using Simufact Welding software and numerical simulation, where output power, feed rate, efficiency and intensity distribution (Gaussian parameter) were analysed. In accordance with the established model, a thermo-mechanical simulation was performed. The calculated joint geometries show good agreement with experiments; therefore, the obtained results were used to study selected joint properties of both joint types. Stress-strain distribution was estimated on the basis of thermo-mechanical analysis. Weld bead geometry obtained from numerical simulation was compared with the results from trial joints. The numerical model established for both joint configurations shows good agreement with experimental results and were assumed to be accurate. The results of the performed analysis shown some advantages of the use of this configuration of lap joints in flange pipe joints